Raw Materials

2021-03-04

Higher consumption and lower production expected to draw down ending stocks in 2020/21

The 2020/21 cotton consumption forecast has been revised upward this month from 24.2 million tonnes to 24.5 million tonnes, and while the projected 7% year-over-year increase isnâ€™t nearly enough to offset the losses caused by the pandemic, itâ€™s expected to outpace production, thus drawing stocks down by the end of the season. Stock levels are expected to drop to 21.1 million tonnes by the end of 2020/21, which would represent a 1% decrease from the previous season.

Highlights from the March 2021 Cotton This Month include:

The cotton consumption forecast has been revised upward to 24.5 million tonnes for the 2020/21 season

The production forecast has been revised downward

As a result, ending stocks are forecast to decrease by 1% to 21.1 million tonnes

This month, the Secretariatâ€™s price projection for the year-end 2020/21 average of the A Index is 75.7 cents per pound

The Secretariat is projecting an increase in global trade. Both China and Pakistan are forecast to increase imports, the former benefitting from the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton and the latter due to a decrease in domestic production.

This month, the Secretariatâ€™s price projection for the year-end 2020/21 average of the A Index is 75.7 cents per pound.

Cotton This Month is published at the beginning of the month with the Cotton Update published mid-month. The Cotton Update, which is included in the Cotton This Month subscription, is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices. The next Cotton Update will be released on 15 March 2021. The next Cotton This Month will be released on 1 April 2021.