According to the report, global cotton area is projected to decline by 1% to 30.1 million hectares, while world production is expected to decrease by 2% to 25.7 million tonnes. Global cotton trade is also forecast to fall by 1.4% to approximately 9.5 million tonnes.

Key Global Market Drivers:

• Surging Input Costs: Global fertilizer prices rose by more than 12% in Q1 2026, driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions and export disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
  

• Strategic Downsizing: Countries like China are intentionally excluding lower-efficiency, low-yielding, and water-stressed plots to favor more productive land.
  

• Weather and Abandonment Pressures: While El Niño supports certain regions, 98% of the U.S. crop faces drought-like conditions, increasing abandonment risks. Meanwhile, Australia faces extreme dryness, and Pakistan struggles with erratic weather and pest pressures.
  

• Alternative Crop Competition: High competition from crops like corn, alongside a soft global market and pressure from man-made fibers, is impacting cotton profitability.
  

Country Outlooks

• China: Expected to remain the world’s largest cotton producer despite a projected 0.5% decline in area (to 3 million hectares) and a 4% decline in production to 7 million tonnes. Favorable weather conditions are expected to support strong crop performance, yielding a globally unmatched 2,421 kg/ha.
  

• United States: Planted area is projected to decrease by 6% to 2.9 million hectares, pulling production down 4% to 2.8 million tonnes — the lowest level in three seasons. Despite a 98% drought footprint threatening abandonment rates, yields are projected 2% higher due to El Niño, and exports are forecast to rise 3%.
  

• Brazil: Following four consecutive seasons of expansion, Brazil’s cotton area is projected to contract by 6% to 2 million hectares, leading to a 10% drop in production to 3.8 million tonnes. The reduction is primarily concentrated in Mato Grosso due to weak demand, rising fertilizer costs, and strong competition from corn.
  

• India: India will maintain the world’s largest cotton area, holding steady at approximately 11.8 million hectares. Production is projected to expand by 8% due to normal monsoon forecasts. The additional output is expected to be absorbed by growing domestic consumption and strong yarn exports to China.
  

• Australia: Driven by extreme dryness, reduced irrigation water, and high input costs, Australia’s cotton area and production are both projected to decline by 10%, bringing total production to approximately 937,000 tonnes.
  

• Pakistan: Production is projected to decline by 18% to approximately 900,000 tonnes despite an unchanged cultivation area. Sector performance remains heavily constrained by poor seed quality, high pest pressure, and unpredictable weather patterns.
  

ICAC’s Price Projections

The Secretariat’s current Cotlook A price forecast for the 2025/26 season, based on current supply and demand estimates, ranges from 75 to 80 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 78 cents per pound. ICAC’s price projections are made by Ms Lorena Ruiz, ICAC Economist.

ICAC’s Statistical Data Portal

For the most current statistics, users are encouraged to consult ICAC’s Statistical Data Portal, which is updated continuously throughout the month to reflect live changes.

The author of Cotton This Month is Parkhi Vats, Principal Statistician & Data Architect at ICAC.

The next issue of Cotton This Month will be released on July 1, 2026.

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