#Raw Materials

2024-03-07

Higher cotton prices are being driven by speculation, not fundamentals

The latest Cotton This Month report has unveiled a significant surge in the price of cotton, transcending initial market projections. This unexpected increase can be attributed primarily to a wave of speculative buying on the futures market.

The actions of speculative buyers have significantly increased the demand for futures contracts, ultimately exerting an upward force on cotton prices. A common pattern emerges as speculators invariably attract additional participation in the market, creating a feedback loop that escalates buying pressure and, consequently, prices.

The real story will start to unfold in the next few months when planting intentions are solidified (at least in the Northern Hemisphere). Planting intentions have been lower than in previous years, and it remains to be seen whether the recent higher prices will incentivize farmers to increase the area under cotton.

If the planted area remains below previous seasons' levels, and consumer sentiment improves — thus driving demand up in the 2024/25 season — then we can certainly expect higher prices to materialize and be justified by fundamentals, especially given the lower stocks in many of the largest countries.

Price Projections

The Secretariat’s current price forecast of the season-average A-index for 2023/24 ranges from 83.5 cents to 102.3 cents, with a midpoint of 91.73 cents per pound.

For the most up-to-date statistics, please refer to the Data Dashboard. It is updated with new data constantly, and that new information is immediately reflected on the Dashboard, making it a valuable, up-to-date resource all month long. You can view a video tutorial on how to use the ICAC Data Dashboard on the ICAC’s YouTube page.

Please note that the cotton balance sheets have been moved to the ICAC Data Dashboard. This ensures that the season balance sheets are always up-to-date and available whenever you need them. This also helps to reduce errors because the data is compiled directly from our database. They are included in this PDF report, but we strongly encourage users to obtain all data from the Dashboard.

Dashboard

https://icac.shinyapps.io/ICAC_Open_Data_Dashboaard/

ICAC to support European Commission on pending PEF legislation

The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) is proud to announce that it has been included as a member of the European Commission’s Technical Advisory Board (TAB) on the Product Environmental Footprint methodology. The Commission developed the Product Environmental Footprint (PEF) to assess and communicate the life cycle environmental performance of products and organizations.

ICAC to collaborate with Uzbekistan and Bizpando on regenerative agriculture

The Government of Uzbekistan has allocated 55,000 hectares of land to implement a regenerative agriculture program for cotton as part of a collaborative project with the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) and Bizpando, a company with a a blockchain-based internet platform designed to ensure supply chain compliance.

ICAC announces postponement of the 83rd Plenary Meeting in Tanzania

Due to unforeseen circumstances arising from the recent developments in Tanzania, the ICAC has announced that its upcoming 83rd Plenary Meeting has been postponed. Scheduled for Nov. 17-20 in Mwanza, the delay was recommended by Tanzania, and the decision was made out of an abundance of caution, prioritizing the safety and well-being of all participants.

Esquel Group adds two new extra-long staple cotton varieties approved

Esquel Group’s Xinjiang Research & Development Center has successfully developed two new Sea Island cotton (Extra-Long-Staple cotton, ELS cotton) varieties named “Yuan Loong 37” and “Yuan Loong 42,” which have been officially approved and granted registration numbers. Both varieties have also obtained Plant Variety Rights certificates, marking another significant breakthrough for the Group in cotton breeding and commercial application.

Aid by Trade Foundation reaches new milestones in supply chain transparency

The Aid by Trade Foundation (AbTF) is reaching new milestones as it leads the way towards greater physical traceability for Cotton made in Africa® (CmiA) cotton. With around 700 suppliers and producers in a total of 25 countries, the Aid by Trade Foundation has reached a new record number of partners who can trace CmiA cotton from the product back to its origin. This is more than double the previous year’s figure.

Modern testing methods for raw cotton

The 38th International Cotton Conference Bremen will take place from 25 to 27 March 2026 at the Bremen Parliament. This conference has traditionally stood for in-depth expertise and international exchange. The program will focus on technical innovations, market trends, and regulatory frameworks across the entire value chain – from agriculture to the circular economy. With high-profile speakers, the conference is regarded as the key meeting point for the global cotton industry. Today’s focus: Cotton quality and testing methods.

Selenis to double capacity in Portugal by Q3 2027 - Accelerating the Global transition to circular and low-carbon polyesters

Selenis, a global leader in high-performance specialty polyesters and part of the IMG Group, has announced a transformational expansion of its industrial headquarters in Portalegre, Portugal. This strategic investment is set to double the site’s production capacity by the third quarter of 2027, significantly accelerating the industrial scale-up of bio-based, medical-grade, and circular co-polyesters.

Independent testing confirms no detectable PFAS in Milliken firefighter turnout gear fabrics

Independent laboratory testing has confirmed that Milliken fabrics used in the manufacturing of firefighter turnout gear contain no detectable PFAS, based on third-party analysis conducted by Forever Analytical, an independent laboratory specializing in screening products and environmental samples for the presence of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS).

Intertextile Shanghai Home Textiles returns in August as global sourcing hub and trend barometer for home textiles industry

Following the conclusion of Heimtextil last month, the flagship fair in Messe Frankfurt’s global home and contract textiles portfolio, Intertextile Shanghai Home Textiles – Autumn Edition will return 18 – 20 August 2026 at the National Exhibition and Convention Center (Shanghai). Building on the momentum generated in Frankfurt, the Shanghai fair will reinforce its position as the foremost home and contract textile platform in Asia – successfully bridging the gap between East and West, and connecting global product trends, supply-chain shifts, and buyer demand in one marketplace.