#Raw Materials

2024-03-07

Higher cotton prices are being driven by speculation, not fundamentals

The latest Cotton This Month report has unveiled a significant surge in the price of cotton, transcending initial market projections. This unexpected increase can be attributed primarily to a wave of speculative buying on the futures market.

The actions of speculative buyers have significantly increased the demand for futures contracts, ultimately exerting an upward force on cotton prices. A common pattern emerges as speculators invariably attract additional participation in the market, creating a feedback loop that escalates buying pressure and, consequently, prices.

The real story will start to unfold in the next few months when planting intentions are solidified (at least in the Northern Hemisphere). Planting intentions have been lower than in previous years, and it remains to be seen whether the recent higher prices will incentivize farmers to increase the area under cotton.

If the planted area remains below previous seasons' levels, and consumer sentiment improves — thus driving demand up in the 2024/25 season — then we can certainly expect higher prices to materialize and be justified by fundamentals, especially given the lower stocks in many of the largest countries.

Price Projections

The Secretariat’s current price forecast of the season-average A-index for 2023/24 ranges from 83.5 cents to 102.3 cents, with a midpoint of 91.73 cents per pound.

For the most up-to-date statistics, please refer to the Data Dashboard. It is updated with new data constantly, and that new information is immediately reflected on the Dashboard, making it a valuable, up-to-date resource all month long. You can view a video tutorial on how to use the ICAC Data Dashboard on the ICAC’s YouTube page.

Please note that the cotton balance sheets have been moved to the ICAC Data Dashboard. This ensures that the season balance sheets are always up-to-date and available whenever you need them. This also helps to reduce errors because the data is compiled directly from our database. They are included in this PDF report, but we strongly encourage users to obtain all data from the Dashboard.

Dashboard

https://icac.shinyapps.io/ICAC_Open_Data_Dashboaard/

Dr N Vigneshwaran is named 2026 ICAC Researcher of the Year

The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) is pleased to announce the selection of Dr N Vigneshwaran, Principal Scientist and Head of the Chemical and Biochemical Processing Division at the ICAR–Central Institute for Research on Cotton Technology (ICAR-CIRCOT), Mumbai, India, as the ICAC Researcher of the Year 2026.

China projected to increase cotton production, yields, and imports in 2026/27

World cotton production in the 2026/27 season is projected at 25.9 million tonnes, exceeding global consumption of 25.2 million tonnes, according to the May 2026 issue of Cotton This Month. That means both production and consumption are expected to remain close to current season levels, while global cotton trade is projected to decline by 2.7% to approximately 9.6-9.7 million tonnes.

New U.S. cotton study uses real-world grower data to reveal where fiber impacts occur

Cotton Incorporated has released a critically reviewed life cycle assessment (LCA) of U.S. cotton fiber production that examines how cotton’s environmental impacts are measured and where meaningful improvements can be made across the value chain. The new data, grounded in real‑world grower inputs, measures what drives U.S. cotton’s environmental footprint from field to gin.

ECCO introduces first shoe featuring innovative protein-based fibre

ECCO, in partnership with Spinnova, announces the launch of the limited edition ECCO BIOM® 720, a first-of-its-kind shoe utilising an often overlooked leather by-product, transformed into a protein-based fibre. The fibres are produced using patented technology that advances material innovation while reducing waste and supporting full resource use across the leather and textile industry.

ATCO Hygienics, Uzbekistan, orders baby diaper production line from ANDRITZ

International technology group ANDRITZ has received an order from ATCO Hygienics to supply a new baby diaper production line for its plant in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. The order is included in ANDRITZ’s order intake for the first quarter of 2026. Commissioning of the production line is scheduled for the end of 2026.

Nico Pedretti appointed as Managing Director Graf Group

As of June 1, 2026, Nico Pedretti has assumed the role of Managing Director Graf Group. With more than 20 years of international industrial experience and extensive expertise in Operations, Supply Chain Management, Finance and Controlling, he brings a broad range of leadership and business experience to support Graf’s continued success.