Modest growth in consumption keeps 2019/20 demand expectations low

Highlights from the October 2019 edition of ‘Cotton This Month’ include:

• Global production is projected to outpace consumption slightly in 2019/20
  
• East Asian countries will continue to lead the world in consumption
  
• Several major consuming countries will post consumption gains, but mostly 2% or less
  
• High stocks and low demand for exports have driven prices to their lowest levels since 2016
  

The East Asia region will continue to lead the world in consumption, but growth likely will be modest, and China’s 2018/19 consumption total of 8.25 million tonnes is expected to remain unchanged in the coming season.

Several major consuming countries should see gains — including India, Bangladesh and Vietnam — but overall growth is slowing, and none of those countries is likely to see gains of 2% or more, with the exception of Indonesia (projected 4% growth over 2018/19).

With plentiful supplies and weak export demand, the price on the Cotlook A Index has dropped to its lowest point since 2016.

Cotton This Month is published at the beginning of the month with the Cotton Update published mid-month. The Cotton Update is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices. The next ‘Cotton Update’ will be provided on 15 October 2019. The next ‘Cotton This Month’ will be released on 1 November 2019.