Raw Materials

2019-04-03

Global consumption projected to reach record high in 2019/20

While the global cotton industry continues to face a number of challenges — trade uncertainties, slowing economic growth and weakening demand — consumption is still expected to set an all-time high in 2019/20, reaching 27.3 million tonnes.

Despite persistent challenges, global cotton consumption should reach an all-time high in 2019/20
World production should rise to 27.6 million tonnes, boosted in part by a 6% increase in global yields
Ending stocks are projected to increase slightly from 2018/19 to 17.7 million tonnes
ICAC’s price projection for the A Index at the end of 2019/20 is 81.25 cents per pound, with a forecast range between 60.71 to 94.23 cents per pound

That record-breaking number still won’t be enough to keep global ending stocks from rising by the end of the 2019/20, however. Total production is projected to reach 27.6 million tonnes, a number boosted in part by a 6% increase in global yields, which should leave 17.7 million tonnes in the world’s warehouses at the end of next season.

According to ICAC’s price projection, changes in market fundamentals — particularly the stocks-to-mill-use (SMU) ratio outside of China — will drive a decrease in the A Index, which is now expected to drop to 81.25 cents per pound in 2019/20.

Steadiness in global production, consumption and stock levels