#Raw Materials

2026-11-05

Global cotton consumption to exceed production in 2026/27 as Asian demand remains resilient

Global cotton consumption is projected to exceed production in the 2026/27 season as output declines across several major producing countries while demand remains relatively stable, according to the November edition of Cotton This Month, published by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).

World cotton production is estimated at 25.75 million tonnes, down approximately 4% from 26.85 million tonnes in 2025/26. Global consumption, meanwhile, is projected to increase slightly to 26.10 million tonnes, compared with 25.89 million tonnes the previous season.

The projections indicate that consumption will exceed production by approximately 353,000 tonnes, reversing the previous season's production surplus of nearly 961,000 tonnes. The shift suggests a modest drawdown in global cotton inventories.

Production declines across major suppliers

The decline in global production reflects reduced crop prospects in several major cotton-producing countries.

China's production is projected to fall by approximately 4%, from 7.5 million tonnes to 7.2 million tonnes, while Brazil's output is expected to decline by about 2%, from 4.25 million tonnes to 4.10 million tonnes.

Production in Pakistan is also forecast to fall by approximately 17%, while the United States is expected to record a decline of about 4%.

India's production is projected to remain stable at 5.3 million tonnes, while West African output is expected to increase modestly to approximately 954,000 tonnes.

The outlook remains subject to weather-related risks, particularly in India and West Africa, where irregular rainfall, drought, excessive moisture, and pest pressure could affect yields and lead to further revisions as the season progresses.

Asian textile industries support global cotton demand

Despite the weaker production outlook, global cotton consumption is expected to remain resilient, supported primarily by textile manufacturing activity across Asia.

China remains the world's largest cotton consumer, with projected consumption of approximately 8.53 million tonnes in 2026/27. India follows at 5.9 million tonnes, essentially unchanged from the previous season and among the country's highest recorded consumption levels.

Several other Asian markets are showing signs of stronger demand:

Pakistan: Cotton consumption is projected to increase by approximately 5% to 2.1 million tonnes. Following nearly five consecutive seasons of declining consumption, the increase could signal the early stages of a recovery in the country's textile industry.

Vietnam: Consumption is projected at approximately 1.77 million tonnes, with the potential to approach 1.8 million tonnes as the season progresses. Strong yarn exports, particularly to China, and high spinning mill utilization are supporting demand. Because Vietnam relies heavily on imported cotton, additional consumption growth could translate into increased import requirements.

Türkiye: Cotton consumption is projected to rise from 1.4 million tonnes to 1.5 million tonnes.

Together, these developments highlight the importance of Asian textile manufacturing to the global cotton market, particularly as consumption is expected to exceed production in the coming season.

Global cotton trade expected to ease

World cotton exports are projected to decline by approximately 1.7%, from 9.92 million tonnes in 2025/26 to 9.75 million tonnes in 2026/27.

Brazil is expected to remain the world's largest cotton exporter, with shipments projected at 3.15 million tonnes, followed by the United States at 2.71 million tonnes and Australia at 1.02 million tonnes.

The projected decline in global exports comes despite relatively stable consumption, reflecting differences in domestic supply, purchasing requirements, and trade patterns among major cotton-producing and consuming countries.

2026/27 Global Cotton Outlook

ICAC's November estimates project:

Production: 25.75 million tonnes, down 4%

Consumption: 26.10 million tonnes, up 0.8%

Exports: 9.75 million tonnes, down 1.7%

Production-consumption balance: Consumption exceeding production by approximately 353,000 tonnes

ICAC's price projections

The ICAC Secretariat forecasts the 2026/27 Cotlook A Index to range between 73 and 106 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 87 cents per pound. Price projections are prepared by Lorena Ruiz, ICAC Economist.

The author of Cotton This Month is Parkhi Vats, Principal Statistician & Data Architect at ICAC.

The next issue of Cotton This Month will be released on December 1, 2026.

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