Raw Materials

2019-01-03

ICAC revises its price forecast to 86.45 cents

(c) 2018 ICAC
With a confidence interval of 95%, the Secretariat of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has set its 2018/19 price forecast for cotton fibre at 86.45 cents per pound, down from 89 cents in December 2018.

Highlights from the January edition of Cotton This Month regarding the 2018/19 season:

  • The midpoint for the 2018/19 price forecast is 86.45 cents/lb, down from last month’s forecast of 89 cents
  • The price forecast has a range from 75.60 cents to 100.21 cents
  • The projection reflects a 95% confidence interval
  • The forecast is based various assumptions, including global consumption, ending stocks, and world trade

ICAC Price Projections - Season-average Cotlook A Index (US cents per pound) (c) 2018 ICAC
ICAC Price Projections - Season-average Cotlook A Index (US cents per pound) (c) 2018 ICAC

The forecast, which has a price range from a low of 75.60 cents to a high of 100.21 cents, is based on the following assumptions:

  • World cotton consumption will be 26.7 million tonnes.
  • World cotton ending stocks will be 18.2 million tonnes.
  • World trade will be 9.4 million tonnes.
  • China’s cotton consumption will be 8.45 million tonnes.
  • Ending stocks in China will be 7.66 million tonnes, and
  • China’s cotton imports will total 1.6 million tonnes.
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