Global stocks decrease
Stocks held outside of China are projected up to 10.3 million tonnes, a continuous increase over the past four consecutive seasons. Along with weather issues in the Xinjiang region which represents 75% of China’s cotton area and potential drought conditions in West Texas affecting 25% of the US crop, there may be concern of quality supply gaps which may affect next seasons supply.
World cotton consumption is projected to increase to 26.7 million tonnes in 2018/19, while world cotton production is estimated at 25.7 million tonnes. Production in China is projected to decrease to 5.6 million tonnes in 2018/19 based on reduced planting area, while consumption is forecasted to increase to 8.4 million tonnes. US production is projected to decrease to 4.2 million tonnes with exports projected to increase 3% to 3.3 million tonnes in 2018/19.
Reduced yields in 2017/18 in India are contributing to lowered planted area for 2018/19 with exports projected at 840,000 tonnes representing a 24% decrease from the previous season. Production in Brazil for the 2017/18 season is estimated to be 1.9 million tonnes, a 26% increase from 2016/17, with 900,000 tonnes projected for export. Production for the West Africa region in 2017/18 is projected at 1.2 million tonnes, representing a 13% growth from the previous season, with exports for the region expected at 1.04 million tonnes.